Russia

By Walter Chambers, 24 February 2025 So shocking was the speech delivered by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference that the Chair burst into tears during his closing speech. Barely a day has gone by since Trump’s inauguration in which a horrific new twist has not been added to the US’s relationship with other countries. Repeating his threat to take over the Panama canal, Trump doubled down on his attacks on Canada, and threatened to “buy” Greenland. Escalating his horrific threats, Gaza, he thundered, should be turned into a tourist centre, forcing millions of Palestinians to seek refuge in neighboring countries. Vance’s speech in Munich left European leaders complaining that the US was no longer “an ally” but “an adversary”. Behind-the-scenes discussions over the past year in NATO and the EU about the need to “Trump-proof” these institutions are now out in the open, as the EU leaders panic about how to deal with this new threat. This sharp change in course by the world’s main imperialist power will leave a feeling of deep treachery by millions: in Gaza the Palestinians who have suffered genocide by the Netanyahu regime, with the full backing of Western imperialism; and now too in Ukraine, where the brutal Russian imperialist occupation has left tens of thousands killed, millions of refugees and whole cities razed to the ground. Many commentators in the bourgeois media describe Trump’s approach as “transactional”, as if somehow this is just a business deal based on offering a product and negotiating a price. Given Trump’s ruthless business history, there is a grain of truth in this. But just a grain. Far more significant is the fact that Trump represents voracious US imperialism, that in recent decades has been significantly weakened both economically and geopolitically. A dangerous new competitor – China – has emerged. US imperialism’s desperate struggle to maintain its global hegemony is driving this new, volatile and dangerous foreign policy. It is turbo-charged by Trump’s bullying personality, needful of power and control, and empowered by provoking conflict and fear in others.  The primitive analysis of those who, just a year ago, claimed “events have dramatically confirmed the power of Cold War bloc consolidation” has been thrown out of a high-storey window.  Trump’s team has threatened and cajoled the US’s long-term allies  to force them to succumb to the US’s new line. As the “Politico” news resource comments: “the EU has to choose between becoming a satrap of the U.S. or breaking free to steer its own course — and it must decide quickly.” At the same time Trump is cosying up to opponents including Belarusian president Lukashenko, and most dramatically Putin. Typical of Trump’s tactics is his threat to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Publicly supporting this plan to ethnic cleanse Gaza, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in more guarded comments justified the threat claiming it contained nothing new, and forced others to come up with their own plans. Indeed, the anger within the ruling circles of the Arab regimes was tenable. In trying to avoid openly opposing Trump, they have to take into account the mood of “the street”, the Arab masses who will not forgive the betrayal of the Palestinians if the Arab regimes abandon their right to a homeland. Under Egypt’s guidance they are scraping together an investment fund to finance the rebuilding of Gaza. Whatever Trump’s intention, his threats have boosted Netanyahu and the warmongers in Israel. US drops pretence of opposing authoritarianism Now Trump’s attention has turned to Ukraine. Having bragged he would end the war in Ukraine “in one day” he is under some pressure to at least set the process in motion. But this is not his main motivation. US imperialism under his direction is prioritising its resources to challenge its main opponent – Chinese imperialism. Whilst the Biden administration followed a strategy of building alliances to combat China, Trump’s approach is based on the belief that the US can stand alone, as long as it reduces its commitments elsewhere.   At the same time, Trump’s  vulture-capitalist nature is eyeing up the business opportunities offered by re-opening the Russian market, and exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources. There is also an undeniable political affinity between Trump and Putin – they are both authoritarian, racist, misogynist, anti-women and LGBTQ+ wanting to return to the ‘family values’ and societal norms of the nineteenth, not the twenty first century. They are both part of the growing far-right, ultra conservative trend growing across the world. Ukraine though doesn’t fit easily into this alliance. The “Orange revolution” in 2004 and then “Euromaidan” in 2014 were both driven by the desire of Ukrainians to escape the authoritarian grip of the Kremlin, looking instead to western European society – which, however flawed, they saw as more prosperous, democratic and free. During the war, Ukrainian society has become less democratic, the importance of womens’ and LGBTQ+ rights has been diminished, but there is a large qualitative difference between Ukrainian society and authoritarian Russia. Trump’s affinity with other authoritarian leaders raises questions of how he will get on with Xi Jinping. On 13 February he announced: “One of the first meetings I want to have [is] with President Xi [of] China and with President Putin of Russia and I want to say, ‘let’s cut our military budget in half.” With Xi coming to Moscow’s 9 May WW2 Victory Celebrations, and rumours that Trump too will attend, some Chinese commentators are speculating that this will open the door to a new “Yalta” – with the aim of reshaping the geopolitical landscape and division of the world into three “spheres of interest”.  This idea would have been unthinkable even weeks ago, but the past few weeks has demonstrated that anything has become thinkable. At the very least it cannot be excluded that Trump will attempt some ‘transactional’ dealings with Xi Jinping. Will the war end? The road to ending the war still has a long way to