By Christian from Mexico Published 9 January 2025
This is the transcript of the introduction by Christian to the discussion on the global situation held during the meeting of the PRMI on 14 December 2024. It has been slightly edited for stylistic reasons.
All facts in this period are an expression of the change in the global capitalist system. Capital accumulation, imperialistic conflicts, exploitation of the working class, and the struggle of oppressed peoples all play central roles in the current dynamics of class struggle. At the same time, while the crisis is pushing conflicts across the world and we see morbid phenomena such as the election of Trump, this is also a period of full revolts, mobilization, and massive actions by the working class that does not ignore the events.
The foreign policy outlined by Donald Trump’s appointments reflects the power dynamics of global capitalism, where the interests of that part of the American bourgeoisie that represents the energy, real estate, construction and industrial sectors are articulated with the military and economic projection of the United States towards the world in a period of crisis and war. The profiles of those nominated – Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor – embody an aggressive stance towards strategic rivals in the global market such as China in the Asia-Pacific and Russia and Iran in Asia and the Middle East, reinforcing the role of the imperialism in the two most important geographical planes of imperialism dispute.
But beyond Trump, as Marx would say, behind the great statesmen we find a history of human societies that demonstrates trends and historical particularities of social forces. Trump is an expression of a social force, a section of the ruling class, a policy of a need of capital in times of crisis, fighting in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East for the value chains of American imperialism, increasing tariffs to fight against Chinese competition in the domestic market, relocating industry with a protectionist and anti-immigration policy. But Trump is also an expression of a global backlash, a portrait of the most conservative and reactionary social forces which are the superstructural expression of a new logic of capital accumulation at a global level.
All these aspects, typical of Trump’s campaign in July, are of a capitalism that needs to move out from the historical crisis of neoliberalism to a morbid reactionary phenomenon in times of crisis.
The hostility towards China, expressed by Marco Rubio in his latest statements, highlights the fight for global economic hegemony and the prolongation of the trade war that Trump began in 2017. The intensification of protectionist policies such as the threat of 100% tariffs on China products and support for the Taiwan government serve as tools to counter China policy in the market and global value chains.
This antagonism promoted by Rubio and Trump in the South China Sea is part of the Trump administration’s position to increase pressure on the CCP and project an “America is back” message in the Indo-Pacific region. The latest spending bill provides $10 billion in weapons investments for Taiwan (National Defense Authorization Act, 2022), marking the first time that the US government has made financing of this type on the island. With the Republican victory in both chambers, investment may increase in support of the anti-China line of Trump’s cabinet.
In the Middle East, the main policy is to consolidate unconditional support for Israel, aligning with the expansionist aspirations of Netanyahu’s government. This policy, which includes the intensification of offensives against Gaza and Lebanon, the occupation of the south of Syria, seeks to guarantee strategic control of key resources of the region. At the same time, the threats against the Iran regime reflect an interest to reduce the Russian influence in the region as its main political and commercial partner.
The policy remains the same, with some important particularities. One of them is the incorporation of pro-Israel and Zionist personalities into his cabinet, lunatics, such as the future Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, a fanatical Christian Zionist. Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota, financed by pro-Israel lobbies who approved a law against pro-Palestinian protests. And last but not least, the famous conspiracy theorist John Ratcliff at the head of the CIA, who accused the Biden administration of diverting critical US intelligence assets to terrorist groups like Hamas. Ratcliff, in opposition to Trump, emphasizes a more concentrated and aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East depressurizing other war fronts, such as with China and the Asian Sea.
However, a pro-Israel cabinet in Washington does not give certainty to the ambiguous policy. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations, said Netanyahu hopes Trump will resume “maximum pressure” on Iran to contain its nuclear program, but could give Trump a chance to negotiate a second term in a bid to secure a legacy as a peacemaker.
In Latin America, the election of Rubio, known for his anti-Cuba stance and his support for sanctions against Venezuela and Nicaragua. On the other hand, Trump has picked out Mexico as having the main responsibility for the drug trafficking that affects the United States, even suggesting the possibility of a direct military intervention to combat the cartels. At the same time, Trump has accused Mexico of facilitating the entry of Chinese products into the US market, using this argument to justify a tariff increase against its main trading partner of more than 50%. The new administration not only considers illegal migration a danger but, as Trump has warned during the campaign, it is the first and greatest line of combat against China.
The threats are not coincidental as Mexico has become the main country for Chinese investments and in future projects such as the production of microchips, cars and goods that pass through the American customs located on the country’s northern border. Mexico is a priority part of the Chinese plan in Latin America called the Belt and Road Initiative and a potential commercial partner of the BRICS as China’s two most ambitious projects to overthrow the hegemony of the United States in the region.
The sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua will be intensified at the initiative of Marco Rubio, who on different occasions has declared an anti-communist crusade in the region as in the classic era of Henry Kissinger. In contrast, Trump has made close alliances with right-wing leaders such as Javier Milei in Argentina, Bolsonaro in Brazil and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, who share ideological affinities and program through the Conservative Alliance, an organization that Trump himself funds and which had an important meeting this year in Brazil, where far-right politicians and parties of the period meet, such as VOX in Spain, Fratelli Di Italy, Meloni’s party, Milei’s party La Libertad Avanza, the National Rifle Association, ultra-conservative governor of Florida Rober de Santis, Bolsonaro and Bukele.
The organization extends its invitation every year, becoming a point of reference for the global right that is promoting the backlash against what they call gender ideology, identity politics and cultural Marxism as the new anti-communism. In this sense, the specific axes of United States foreign policy after this year’s elections are clear for the next period: 1) policy of tariff extortion against China’s trade partners in the region, 2) mass deportation program against Latino workers, 3) intensification of political and military interventionism through projects such as the Conservative Alliance, threats of a war on drugs and the conspiracies of former lunatics and anti-communists in the presidential cabinet.
Regarding Europe, there are four main themes that are at the heart of Trump’s policy: the war in Ukraine, the relationship with NATO, trade with the European Union and the regional dispute with China. During the election campaign, he was very vocal in his criticism of the Biden administration’s massive support for the war in Ukraine, warning that he could stop it within 24 hours. His foreign policy could focus on pressuring Ukraine to reach a negotiated agreement with Russia, preserving a certain zone of influence and using assets in regions where the new cold war is intensifying such as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.
Pressure is likely to increase for Europe to invest more in defense, under threat of reducing the American commitment to NATO if the financing goal of 3% of GDP is not reached. In trade, he would maintain his protectionist approach, pressuring the European Union to renegotiate trade agreements. As for Chinese investments, he would seek to limit China’s economic expansion in Europe, promoting restrictions in strategic sectors such as construction, communications and energy, which have already given rise to recent controversy during his last visit to France with Macron.
In Africa, Trump’s intention to secure supply chains of strategic minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, responds to the interests of American capital to guarantee essential raw materials for green technologies and the technology industry. From our perspective this represents a form of neocolonialism in the region, where Africa serves as a source of resources for the benefit of foreign capital without African countries being able to break the ties of dependence that tie them to the capitalist metropolises. This would be done through partnerships with African governments and the development of infrastructure projects such as the Lobito Corridor.
On a global level, Trump’s return represents a rejection of Biden’s ambiguous policy and a return to transactional diplomacy that hides in the background the imperialist and visceral attitude of American capitalism.
But on the other hand, we have the big question: After all of this, where is the working class? Will Trump be able to achieve his goals or will he be confronted by the dynamics of class struggle and the action of the working class around the world?
Trump’s policy will face greater limitations due to the struggles of the working class, youth and women at a global level. American imperialism will be limited by the tensions that are brewing at this moment.
The growth of mobilizations in European countries against austerity policies and social cuts, such as in France and England, also creates more unstable ground for Trump to implement his imperialistic foreign policy based on the imposition of tariffs and at the same time on attacks on workers’ rights, such as the current national Volkswagen strike in Germany and the government crisis that is occurring in Germany, France and England.
The protests against austerity in Latin America or the demands for sovereignty in Africa in the face of neocolonialism also limit the ability of American imperialism to operate with the same easy way. We have seen the example this year of the failed coup d’état promoted by the United States in Bolivia which was confronted by millions of workers taking to the streets.
Let us imagine how Trump would act in Asia and in South Korea as his strategic ally against China in a context in which a threat of a general strike against the martial law of the Korean government defeated the interests of the ruling class, fearful before the struggle began.
In this dialectical situation, what Marx would define as a “bottleneck” is formed, in which the crisis pushes upwards to be resolved with this imperialist attitude and the oppressed classes push downwards to avoid it. That is, it connects the local particularities of the struggles and local forces of the working class and its political situation with the global dynamics of capitalism.
The class struggle operates under these circumstances, overcoming the reductionist logic of the national and international political forces as a merely geopolitical aspect, and is useful for outlining perspectives that help organize the struggle of the working class by putting the class and its dynamics at the center of our analysis in the midst of the global dynamics. Unlike the pessimistic approach of the majority, which warns that the next actions of the States in the future would be made for purely geopolitical reasons, they ignore the role that the class struggle and the working class can play in putting pressure on and reversing the desire of the ruling class in the conduction of the international aspects. Even Trump’s own policy is limited and confronted by this actions and dynamics in history.
What I mean is that a crisis of the system and its attempt to overcome it, whether in the figure of Trump or another morbid phenomenon, is accompanied by revolutionary events and extraordinary action by the working class. Historical examples have shown that despite the dark panorama of events, it is always possible to glimpse a horizon of emancipatory opportunities, and we must be prepared to seize them.