At the time of writing, the imperialist powers are discussing a “peace plan” to end the war in Ukraine, the first draft of which was written by the Kremlin, with the help of the White House, and then adapted by the European powers. The original 28 points have been reduced to 19, with other, so far undefined points left for negotiation between Trump and Zelensky.
Hypocritically declaring their support for the sovereignty and right to self-determination for Ukraine neither the US nor Europeans have given ordinary Ukrainians access to the points being proposed so that the Ukrainians themselves can discuss the points and decide their fate. Discussions are held behind closed doors in countries such as South Africa and Abu Dhabi, with Zelensky and his team drip-fed information.
The most important point is left to the end of both plans. It says: “Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.”
Having the ceasefire as the culmination of the process allows the Kremlin to draw out as long as possible fighting on the front, and the bombing of the cities and infrastructure. And indeed it looks as if this is exactly what Putin is again trying to do. But it also allows the US and EU to disguise their real ambitions. While Ursula von der Leven, President of the European Commission declared this week that “Ukraine’s borders cannot be changed by force”, the European plan proposes accepting Russia’s armed occupation of parts of Ukraine.
There should be no secret negotiations, all points of the agreement should be transparent, and the Ukrainian people should have the right to discuss them and make any final decisions on what they can and cannot accept as part of any final peace agreement. To allow for this there should be an immediate ceasefire.
What is in Trump’s peace plan?
The original plan written in Russia’s interests is based on the approach of 19th Century European, Russian and US imperialism. Ukraine will become a US protectorate, allowing the western powers access to exploit the country’s natural resources, while at the same time accepting the brutal annexation of key parts of the country by Russian imperialism in return for empty promises and the removal of sanctions on Russia.
Key points of the plan are:
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control. In other areas fighting will be frozen along the line of contact.
- Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees;
- The US will be the main beneficiary of the reconstruction of Ukraine, and have access to its mineral and natural resources;
- Sanctions on Russia will be removed, and it will rejoin G7;
- An unelected “Peace Council”, headed by Trump will oversee the plan.
Is the European plan better?
The European powers claim to be reliable supporters of Ukraine’s independence. But this is a mask covering their own militarisation, whilst continuing their attacks on the living standards and rights of their own peoples. The share prices of European defence companies fell when news of the peace plan emerged.
The most significant changes made by the Europeans to Trump’s plan are not intended to protect Ukrainian interests, but those of European capital. They include:
- Replacing “reliable” security guarantees with “robust” security guarantees;:
- Instead of Russia being reintegrated into the global economy, it will be “progressively reintegrated”;
- Instead of “A joint American-Russian working group on security issues”, Ukraine and the EU will be included;
- While the US de-facto recognises Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as Russian, the EU says Ukraine will not use military means to retake them.
For four years a brutal war of occupation launched by Russian imperialism has seen hundreds of thousands of lives destroyed, millions forced to flee as refugees, cities destroyed. Ukrainians have made unthinkable sacrifices to defend their country, their homes and livelihoods. Now overwhelmingly, Ukrainians want this nightmare to end.
Although the Russian dictatorship suppresses all free speech, the vast majority of Russians too want an end to the war. Ordinary working people of all sides are in favour of an immediate ceasefire. There are however serious problems with the plans currently proposed.
What are the problems with the plans?
Firstly despite the words ‘reliable’ and ‘robust’ the security guarantees in the plans are far from developed but the implication is that, according to the European plan, there will be a “US guarantee that mirrors Article 5”. NATO’s article five states that if one member is attacked the others will come to its aid.
NATO though does not have a good record, it was unable to prevent genocide in Bosnia, and was itself instrumental in the Iraq and Afghan wars, as well as the bombing of Serbia. The US has a similar “Security pact” [Rio Pact] with 21 South American countries – since the pact was signed the US has supported military coups and interventions in 12 of those countries and is currently threatening Panama and Venezuela. This is not to ignore the US and European support for Netenyahu’s genocide of the Palestinians.
European promises to provide security guarantees have already been tested with the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to prevent the seizure of Crimea, or the French and German guarantees after 2014 to block the full scale aggression in 2022.
Both proposed plans include establishing a “Peace council” headed by Trump, based on the model proposed for Gaza. This is designed not to ensure peace, as can currently be seen with the continuing attacks on Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, but in promoting the US’s, and Trump’s political and commercial interests.
The only security guarantee that will actually ensure peace is the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and the overthrow of the Russian dictator and Russian capitalism with its greedy imperialist appetite, as well as an end to the warmongering of the other imperialist powers and their exploitation of Ukraine’s resources.
The occupied territories
Secondly, there is the question of the occupied territories. Not only does the Trump plan propose the de-facto recognition of the territories his armies have already seized as Russian, Ukraine is expected to hand over extra territories – including the 25% of the Donetsk region with the ‘fortress cities’ it does not yet control.
The European plan does not go this far – they propose the de-facto recognition of what has already been occupied, using, of course, different words: “the Ukraine will not recover them through military means”. This reflects the promise made by Zelensky that Ukraine will only attempt to regain control “by diplomacy” which, under the current balance of forces, is completely unrealisable.
Neither plan makes any attempt to allow the people who once lived in these territories any say about the future of the regions. Many have voted with their feet, the population of the Donbas has nearly halved (from 7 million in 2013 to 3,7 now) since the first Russian incursions in 2014 as many, including many ethnic Russians and Russian speaking Ukrainians fled the authoritarian occupation forces. Nor does either plan include the demand for all Russian troops to leave Ukraine, a prerequisite for peace in the region.
Vultures circling
The plans also go into detail on how Ukraine’s economy will be dealt with. The US/Kremlin plan is clearly aimed at boosting both the US and Russian economies. It says that 50% of the profits made in “US-led” efforts to restore the Ukrainian economy will go to the US. Sanctions against Russia will be lifted and it will rejoin G7.
The EU has already made clear that it wants repayment for the assistance that it has given to Ukraine during the war. It is demanding the deregulation of domestic energy prices, and a speeding up of the privatisation programme.
Both projects include points on the exploitation of Ukraine’s minerals and natural resources.
Resources desperately needed for the restoration of the country, to rebuild homes and ensure that there is a strong economy capable of protecting Ukraine’s self-determination in the future are being used not for the benefit of the Ukrainian people, but the profits of private owners.
What now?
Ukraine’s ruling class has been relying on support from European imperialism while Europe has used Putin’s threats to rearm and build its military. Zelensky has tried to sell them the idea of building a “European shield”. But the Ukrainian working class can have no confidence neither in the US, nor in Europe who for years have been whitewashing the Russian dictator for the sake of cheap energy resources.
At the same time the country is being wracked by the corruption crisis. While whole regions of the country suffer from regular power outages following the persistent Russian bombings of the energy infrastructure, high-positioned government figures have been syphoning off millions of dollars intended to repair the damage. At the time of writing, the office of Zelensky’s second in command is being searched by the anti-corruption police.
An immediate ceasefire would allow working class organisations to open dialog in the workplaces and living areas about the way forward in this situation, and what form of struggle is needed to end the occupation and defend the rights and living conditions of ordinary Ukrainians. A political alternative based on the working class is needed to oppose the oligarchs, corrupt politicians and their political servants, one that can organise a struggle:
- To establish democratic committees of workers, soldiers, youth to fight corruption and take control of all aspects of state administration;
- To maintain control of all the country’s minerals and natural resources, and the seizure of the wealth of the oligarchs to be used for the restoration of the economy;
- To promote a programme to take industry into public hands under workers’ control, so it can be democratically planned in the interests of all Ukrainians.
If this was to happen, the Kremlin’s propaganda could be dramatically undermined in the eyes of the Russian working class.
Ukrainians and their supporters in the west can learn from the Palestine solidarity movement, which has managed to alter the course of Israel’s war and use protests and the blockade of companies involved in the delivery of arms and components to the Russian war machine.
In particular this means exposing capitalist leaders such as Merz, Starmer, Macron and von der Leyen who cynically use Ukraine to build their own military capacities, and at the same time support the brutal genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. All of Ukraine’s debts should be cancelled, all aid given should be free, the assets of the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs should be seized and used for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
We call on workers and trade unions to continue and step up their solidarity activities, to encourage the independent political organisations of the working class in both the Ukraine and the west.
The only way to end the occupation of, and the threat of future occupations is to build working class organisations capable of organising the overthrow of Putin’s regime and Russian capitalism which he represents.
This needs the collective organisation of all in Russia who are against the war, who defend the rights of the national minorities, the rights of women and the LGBTQ+ community. It means the conduct of agitation among the working class, soldiers, students with the demands;
- For the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory;
- Against all the reactionary measures of the government;
- Against the militarisation of the Russian economy, for budget money to go to healthcare, education and protection of the climate;
- For the release of all political prisoners,
- For the creation of a mass, socialist workers party to fight for the downful of Putin’s regime, and replacing it with a society based on workers’ democracy and democratic planning.
We call for international workers’ solidarity with all those in Russia fighting for these aims.