Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil in recent weeks and the US government’s decree of 30 July, with a watered-down version, has a new element compared to those imposed on other countries: the attempt to intervene directly in a country’s judicial institution to save former president and far-right figure Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) is in an advanced legal process regarding the coup attempt carried out by Bolsonaro and his allies at the end of his term in 2022 and early 2023. He will likely be convicted along with dozens of military personnel, including some generals, and hundreds of civilians who attempted to prevent Lula from taking office, in addition to planning the assassination of the president, vice president, and a Supreme Court justice.
The Supreme Court judge leading the legal proceedings, Alexandre de Moraes, is also facing sanctions from the US government, such as the suspension of his visa (affecting seven other Supreme Court judges as well whilst sparing only those ministers who are outspoken allies of Bolsonaro) and the activation, on the same day as the tariff decree, of the Magnitsky Act, which will cause a series of difficulties in the use of international banking and digital services. In addition, Trump has launched an investigation into Pix, a free and simple Brazilian digital money transfer system that is extremely popular.
There are other reasons for such aggressive tariffs on Brazil. Opposition to the BRICS (a cooperation group with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and others), support for big tech companies against possible regulatory laws being discussed in Brazil and, of course, the lie that the US has a trade deficit with the country. In fact, the US has had a surplus of US$ 48 billion over the last 28 years with Brazil.
As in other cases, the tariff imposed on Brazil on 30 July ended up being weaker than the initial threat, with exemptions and lower tariffs for many products, including those not produced in the US. In the end, it is estimated that the loss in the value of Brazilian exports to the US will end up being half of what was originally threatened.
How is Brazil coping with Trump’s attack?
Eduardo Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro’s son and a federal deputy, has been in the US for five months coordinating political forces to deal with his father’s legal proceedings. He has always been the most articulate and ideological figure with links to the international far right. He ended up taking the blame for the tariff hike, which obviously went down very badly with Brazilian public opinion in general, including the upper classes. He went to the US mainly to build some kind of threat and sanctions against the Supreme Court, but perhaps he did not count on Trump’s tariff hike or the negative repercussions in Brazil, even among Bolsonaro supporters.
Despite the growth of the international far right, the episode caused a crisis and divisions within the far right in Brazil. In addition to their main leader being in trouble, several other leaders, including some state governors, are betting on Bolsonaro’s downfall and fighting for his spoils in preparation for the 2026 presidential election.
These potential candidates, such as Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo, the richest state in the country, want Bolsonaro’s votes, but they want to show greater responsibility to the bourgeoisie, which obviously has a lot of money to lose with the tariffs. Tarcísio even got involved in trying to negotiate with the US, which made Eduardo Bolsonaro quite angry, resulting in insults being hurled at him on social media.
In the end, even with all his connections in the US, Eduardo only managed to get first an electronic ankle bracelet and then house arrest for his father, the seizure of his mobile phone and other electronic equipment, and a ban on giving interviews or posting on social media or other public platforms, a decision made by Minister Alexandre de Moraes.
The organised working class and the entire progressive sector of the population eagerly awaited Bolsonaro’s arrest, which finally happened on Monday 4th of August when Moraes charged him with defying court orders after he appeared at rallies called by his supporters. It is worth remembering that not only was he the mastermind behind the coup attempt, but he is also guilty of many other crimes, from theft and corruption to deliberate negligence in the pandemic and inciting farmers to murder indigenous people and burn forests.
Lula gained popularity with the tariff
The ones who have benefited from this whole situation so far are Lula and the federal government. Similar to what happened in other countries threatened by Trump’s tariffs, such as Canada, the tariffs created a sense of national unity. Trump’s blackmail boosted Lula’s approval rating in polls to 43% (up 3%), reversing the downward trend and encouraging the government and the Workers’ Party (PT) to create a major marketing campaign around national sovereignty with the slogan ‘Brazil belongs to Brazilians’.
The bourgeoisie is very concerned, as it is suffering financial losses from these tariffs and has lost tons of goods in ports in recent weeks. It does not like the Bolsonaro family’s attitude and tends to abandon them, as is happening in the court case, but it pressured Lula to negotiate, accusing him of being a radical leftist who prefers anti-American rhetoric to dialogue. The government tried to negotiate, but achieved little, largely due to Trump’s radicalism. Even so, the exemption of several products in the decree of the 30th left the Lula government with a good image. On the other hand, a rhetoric of sovereignty is growing and is supported by the possibility of alternatives to the long history of US tutelage and dependence, such as BRICS itself.
In fact, China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, not exactly because of the left-wing position of the PT governments, but because of the explosive growth of the Asian country in recent decades, which has sucked up Brazilian commodities, mainly iron and soybeans. Lula and the PT have never proposed, nor do they now intend to present, a truly sovereign or minimally developmentalist project, not least because the core of their policy is fiscal austerity in conciliation with conservative sectors of the bourgeoisie.
The way out is via the left
Despite the bourgeoisie’s concerns, those truly affected by tariffs and economic wars will be the Brazilian working class and its most vulnerable sectors, such as women, LGBT+, black and indigenous people. Lula and the PT’s project is always more of the same; it is unlikely to propose anything different after the tariffs and will do the same if it wins next year’s elections. They will continue to ask the people to vote for them, promising to bring prosperity and social justice to the people from within the institutions, while at the same time directing working-class organisations and movements to continue waiting.
They create the illusion that trade agreements such as BRICS or Mercosur (South American Common Market) will solve economic problems through dialogue. The thirst for profits of the big bourgeoisie, whether Chinese or American, will not be quenched by dialogue and understanding between rulers who have always been hand in hand with the ruling class.
The way out can only come from the independent organisation of the working class, the great force and economic base of society, in international unity. The united working class can demand an end to tariffs, build large international movements with strikes, occupations, road blockades and grassroots organisation, and demand an end to genocide and wars. It can take charge of what is theirs and build a sovereign economy based on the needs and rights of all peoples and the preservation of planet Earth.